The earthquake maps give a rough indication of the level of the earthquake hazard within the region. However, comparison between different sub-areas based on the density of epicentres is not possible without analysis to account for the sparseness and variable density of the seismic network. Furthermore, the presence or absence of small or large earthquakes is not necessarily indicative of the future potential of a large earthquake due to the combined effect of network limitations and complexity of the earthquake process. Forecasting of earthquake potential requires high-level analysis and research. Recent work conducted in collaboration with leading international research centres (primarily China, Japan and USA) suggests that intermediate term forecasting is achievable with a suitable network through advanced analysis and computer simulation. Collaborative research with China presented at international conferences during 2000 indicates that both the Newcastle 1989 earthquake and the Burra SA 1997 earthquake were apparently forecastable (Queensland data was not sufficient for similar forecasting research using data within the state). The Queensland earthquake map shows that the State is seismically active and suggests the highest hazard region lies along the populated eastern coast and near offshore regions. The largest earthquakes on the map are the offshore Gladstone 1918 earthquake (Richter magnitude estimate of ML=6.3 based on felt area and ML=6.0 based on an instrumental recording), and the 1935 Gayndah earthquake (Richter magnitude ML=6.1). Earthquakes with the potential to cause serious damage or fatalities (ML > 5) have occurred on average about every 5 years during the last century with several near misses to the State's large population centres. |
click here to download a movie of the Queensland Seismicity (33Mb, AVI file)
The map shows earthquakes with Richter magnitudes greater
than 3.5 and suggests the higher seismicity and hazard regions are along
eastern Australia (in bands running from Melbourne to Newcastle, Brisbane
to Gladstone, and Mackay to Cairns), in the Adelaide geosyncline, and in
parts of Western Australia. Less seismographs and lower population density
during the last century in Queensland relative to eastern NSW and Victoria
means that the true seismicity in Queensland compared to eastern NSW and
Victoria may be higher than it appears on the map. Caution should be used
when interpreting this map in terms of the earthquake hazard because of
sparseness and heterogeneity of seismic monitoring, varying times that instruments
covering different parts of the country were installed, and because of the
complexity of the earthquake process. For example, the occurance of few
earthquakes in any given region may be due to the inability of the seismic
network to detect earthquakes, low seismicity and hazard, or a period when
little stress is being relieved through small earthquakes and a large event
is about to occur. The possibility for earthquakes to strike what appeared
to be a quiet area was demonstrated by the magnitude 6.9 Tennant Creek earthquake
in 1988. Prior to this event, the Tennant Creek area exhibited no seismic
activity whatsoever despite being well monitored.
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Earthquakes this century (1900-1994) with magnitude greater than 5.0 according to an international catalog combined with the Australian catalog. When compared to plate margin regions such as California or Japan, the rate of earthquakes is lower, but relative to other intraplate regions, Australia's earthquake activity is moderate to high. The level of the earthquake hazard of Australia's more active regions is roughly comparable to that of well known seismic zones in central USA. This is around 5 to 10 times lower than in California measured in engineering terms (horizontal ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years). The largest earthquake that can occur in Australia is not yet known but is expected to be above Richter Magnitude 7, roughly similar to large Californian earthquakes. For example, the 1988 Tennant Creek earthquake had a Richter magnitude around 6.9, slightly larger than the 1994 Northridge earthquake near Los Angeles (Mw=6.7) that resulted in $US 15 billion and cost 57 lives. Earthquakes offshore south-eastern Australia have exceeded Richter magnitude ML=7.
Click here for a list of some large or noteworthy Australian and Queensland earthquakes.
Click here for a list of some large earthquakes in the world.
Recent earthquakes in and near Australia can be found at AGSO.
To report felt earthquakes in Queensland or to obtain paper copies of earthquake maps of Queensland and Australia or additional earthquake information for Queensland, contact Col Lynam, Senior Observer, QUAKES or Tracy Paroz, Administrator, QUAKES. For full contact information, click here.